As we begin to witness an increase in political activities leading to the 2027 elections, it is pertinent that we begin to strategize and have frank discussions about our political future. It is common knowledge that our region has witnessed significant drawbacks politically since the people’s democratic party (PDP) lost elections in 2015 both at the federal and state levels. We have witnessed a deliberate attempt at political exclusion from the government that took over the mantle of leadership in Kaduna state in 2015. Make no mistake about it. Those actions were deliberate and well calculated. However, it was a political strategy to win elections that was well thought out, planned and executed. While we can argue about the morality of the kinds of rhetoric that accompanied the campaigns and the treatment of the southern Kaduna people, we must understand that there are no freebies in politics. Politics is simply a game of numbers and we must make deliberate efforts to ensure that our numbers count in the grand scheme of things so that we can get our fair share. Emotions have no place in politics, except if we are only interest in venting rather than participating actively.
The 2027 elections is no doubt going to be an interesting one based on political activities and permutations. The people of southern Kaduna must return to the drawing board, think and strategize ahead of time. Historically, southern Kaduna votes become the decider in Kaduna state governorship elections when the votes from zone 1 and zone 2 are split between leading political parties. Asides from the 2007 elections where the PDP scored 1,326,632 and the ANPP scored 478,725, and the 2015 elections were the PDP scored 485,833 and the APC scored 1,117,635, the voting trend has always shown a not so significant margin between the winner and the runner up.Furthermore, what is clear is that when zone 1 and 2 don’t vote unanimously for the same candidate, it is southern Kaduna that decides the winner of the elections.
Looking at the 2011 elections, the 2 candidates of the major politicaI parties (PDP and CPC) were from zone 3 and 2 respectively and the margin of lead between the winner and runner up was around 200,000 votes. The then PDP candidate had massive support from Southern Kaduna and got support from the two other zones to emerge the winner. The 2019 elections saw a difference of around 230,000 votes between the winner (APC) and the PDP. The interesting thing to note about the 2019 elections is that Zone 1 and zone 2 majorly voted for the APC which meant that southern Kaduna votes for the PDP couldn’t swing the elections. The 2023 elections was even more interesting because the difference between the votes of the winner (APC) and runner up (PDP) was just 11,000 votes. This was largely because there was no unanimous support for the APC like we saw in 2015 and 2019 from zone 1 and zone 2. Unfortunately for the PDP, there was the labour party candidate from Southern Kaduna who pulled 58,283 votes largely from Southern Kaduna. No one can guarantee what would have happened to those 58,283 votes if the labour party candidate didn’t contest, but my guess is that a sizeable chunk of those votes would have gone to the PDP and southern Kaduna would have decided that election in favour of the PDP.
Historical voting patterns have shown that when zone 1 and zone 2 don’t vote overwhelmingly for the same candidate, southern Kaduna votes decide the Kaduna state governorship elections. What is clear about the 2027 elections from where I stand and can see is that we are going to have at least 3 major contenders who are going to be from zone 1 and/or zone 2, and the votes of these 2 zones will be heavily divided. You don’t need to be clairvoyant to know that southern Kaduna votes will play a critical role in determining who wins the 2027 governorship elections in Kaduna state. The question therefore is, what do the people of southern Kaduna intend to do with this opportunity that is looking at them in their eyes? Are we going to strategize and take advantage of this opportunity, or are we going to allow it to waste and suffer another four years in political obscurity? I believe strongly that we must explore all options to take advantage of the opportunity for the benefit of our region and our people. How do we take advantage of this opportunity? My suggestions are as follows:
1. The first step is that southern kaduna must put its house in order and ensure that we speak with one voice by way of a block votes. As a region that has felt the brunt of deliberate political exclusion in the last 10 years, especially between 2015 and 2023, we must realise that we are united in a struggle beyond political, religious and ethnic affiliations. Our allegiance must first and foremost be to the struggle that unites us rather than any other institutional affiliation. We must put together a team of well respected people that will liaise with our people across all divides and ensure that we are on the same page. The consequences of our failure to speak with one voice in the 2027 elections will be far more detrimental than what we experienced between 2015 and 2023.
2. Southern Kaduna people must come together and put on their thinking caps. This time around, decisions must be made purely out of strategy rather than emotions. We must critically examine the chances of all political parties and candidates that will emerge after primaries, and their support bases in zone 1 and zone 2 before throwing our support for any candidate. There is no doubt that the PDP has been fair to southern Kaduna between 1999 and 2015, but the strategy of 2027 should not simply be about past alliances. Extraordinary situations they say call for extraordinary measures, and therefore we mustbe strategic in choosing who we support. If based on critical analysis the PDP has a clear chance of getting a sizeable chunk of the votes in zone 1 and zone 2, then we can stick with the PDP. But if not, we must make new alliances in 2027. Let’s be clear, a candidate from Southern Kaduna has no chance of winning the elections in 2027 even if he gets all the southern Kaduna votes, except we want to force the elections to go into a rerun between the 2 leading candidates in the first ballot. Therefore, we must remove emotions and sentiments and apply pure strategy in the 2027 elections.
3. The people of southern Kaduna should decide among themselves what they want from the candidate that they will support. Politics after all is about who gets what and how. Our demands must reflect our collective aspirations for growth and development rather than narrow parochial sentiments of simply occupying positions for the sake of occupying positions. We should make our list of demands and negotiate skilfully with whichever candidate we wish to support. We can demand for greater control of our region through the local governments, demand for more developmental projects, more positions at the state and federal levels depending on the party or parties we are supporting, etc. We should aim for the sky in our demands, but must be flexible.
4. We must fashion out a way of engaging our people politically and be honest with our dealings so that our people can trust those that will be leading the political movement ahead of 2027. People who have shown a penchant for selfishness, greed and dishonesty must be jettisoned for people of strong character and convictions.Furthermore, the young people must be carried alongbecause whatever future we are trying to build belongs to them. While the wisdom of the elders is important , the strength and vigour of the youth must never be toiled with.
The above suggestions are just mere suggestions from my standpoint. I do not for any reason claim to be all knowing when it comes to what’s best for us as a people. My only aim for writing this is to draw our attention to an opportunity that is hanging around the corner that we must seize to advance our collective interest of building a prosperous southern Kaduna and by extension, Kaduna state. I strongly believe that if we can mobilise heavily and put our house in order, it is the people of southern Kaduna who will decide the winner of the 2027 governorship elections in Kaduna state. The clock is ticking and theearlier we start strategizing the better for all of us and our generations unborn.
Adamu Dauda Tsoho
08037575393 (Text only).